Appearance of climatic cycles and oscillations in Carpathian Basin precipitation data

Abstract

A number of climatic cycles and teleconnections are known on the Earth. By definition, the cycles can have a periodic effect on the global climate, while teleconnections can influence the weather at large distances. At the same time, it is overwhelmingly assumed that the hydrological cycle is permanently intensifying all over the world. In this study, we determine and quantify some connections among these climatic cycles and precipitation data from across Hungary. By using cross-correlation and cross-spectral analysis, the connections of the climatic patterns and oscillations with the precipitation of different Hungarian areas have been defined. We used the 1950–2010 timeframe in order to be able to detect effects of several climatic patterns, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the rainfall events of the Carpathian Basin. Data from four different precipitation measurement sites and oscillation indexes from several databases were used. The results help to understand the patterns and regularities of the precipitation, which is the major source of natural groundwater recharge, and a handy tool for future groundwater management measures. Because of the defined connections, any changes in these teleconnections will probably influence the future utilization of the Hungarian groundwater resources.