Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region, Iran

Abstract

Seismic strain and b value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small b values (0.69 and 0.69) are related to large seismic moment rates (9.96×1017 and 4.12×1017) in southern zones of the Zagros, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Medium to large b values (0.72 and 0.92) are related to small seismic moment rates (2.94×1016 and 6.80×1016) in middle zones of the Zagros, indicating less frequent large earthquakes. Small b value (0.64) is related to medium seismic moment rate (1.38×1017) in middle to northern zone of the Zagros, indicating frequent large earthquakes. Large b value (0.87) is related to large seismic moment rate (2.29×1017) in northwestern zone, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (M > 6) are short in southern (10 and 14 years) and northwestern (13 years) zones, while the recurrence intervals are long in the middle (46 and 114 years) and middle to northern (25 years) zones.