Probabilidad de corrección súbita de cuenta corriente para Costa Rica: un enfoque de análisis de supervivencia

Abstract

Using a survival model approach using data panel, an exploratory analysis is made to estimate the probability of a sudden current account correction in Costa Rica. The results show that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the economic dependency ratio increases, iv) the world’s GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior. Annual data from 1981 to 2012 for 116 countries is used.