Dividend maximization in a hidden Markov switching model

Abstract

In this paper we study the valuation problem of an insurance company by maximizing the expected discounted future dividend payments in a model with partial information that allows for a changing economic environment. The surplus process is modeled as a Brownian motion with drift. This drift depends on an underlying Markov chain the current state of which is assumed to be unobservable. The different states of the Markov chain thereby represent different phases of the economy. We apply results from filtering theory to overcome uncertainty and then we give an analytic characterization of the optimal value function. Finally, we present a numerical study covering various scenarios to get a clear picture of how dividends should be paid out.