{"title":"A study of the COVID-19 epidemic in India using the SEIRD model","authors":"R. Banerjee, S. Bhattacharjee, P. Varadwaj","doi":"10.15302/j-qb-021-0260","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background: The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is causing a havoc globally, exacerbated by the newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to its high population density, India is one of the most badly effected countries from the first wave of COVID-19. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to accurately predict the state-wise and overall dynamics of COVID-19 to get the effective and efficient organization of resources across India. Methods: In this study, the dynamics of COVID-19 in India and several of its selected states with different demographic structures were analyzed using the SEIRD epidemiological model. The basic reproductive ratio R0 was systemically estimated to predict the dynamics of the temporal progression of COVID-19 in India and eight of its states, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh. Results: For India, the SEIRD model calculations show that the peak of infection is expected to appear around the middle of October, 2020. Furthermore, we compared the model scenario to a Gaussian fit of the daily infected cases and obtained similar results. The early imposition of a nation-wide lockdown has reduced the number of infected cases but delayed the appearance of the infection peak significantly. Conclusion: After comparing our calculations using India's data to the real life dynamics observed in Italy and Russia, we can conclude that the SEIRD model can predict the dynamics of COVID-19 with sufficient accuracy.","PeriodicalId":45660,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Biology","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quantitative Biology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15302/j-qb-021-0260","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is causing a havoc globally, exacerbated by the newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to its high population density, India is one of the most badly effected countries from the first wave of COVID-19. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to accurately predict the state-wise and overall dynamics of COVID-19 to get the effective and efficient organization of resources across India. Methods: In this study, the dynamics of COVID-19 in India and several of its selected states with different demographic structures were analyzed using the SEIRD epidemiological model. The basic reproductive ratio R0 was systemically estimated to predict the dynamics of the temporal progression of COVID-19 in India and eight of its states, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh. Results: For India, the SEIRD model calculations show that the peak of infection is expected to appear around the middle of October, 2020. Furthermore, we compared the model scenario to a Gaussian fit of the daily infected cases and obtained similar results. The early imposition of a nation-wide lockdown has reduced the number of infected cases but delayed the appearance of the infection peak significantly. Conclusion: After comparing our calculations using India's data to the real life dynamics observed in Italy and Russia, we can conclude that the SEIRD model can predict the dynamics of COVID-19 with sufficient accuracy.
期刊介绍：
Quantitative Biology is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on original research that uses quantitative approaches and technologies to analyze and integrate biological systems, construct and model engineered life systems, and gain a deeper understanding of the life sciences. It aims to provide a platform for not only the analysis but also the integration and construction of biological systems. It is a quarterly journal seeking to provide an inter- and multi-disciplinary forum for a broad blend of peer-reviewed academic papers in order to promote rapid communication and exchange between scientists in the East and the West. The content of Quantitative Biology will mainly focus on the two broad and related areas: ·bioinformatics and computational biology, which focuses on dealing with information technologies and computational methodologies that can efficiently and accurately manipulate –omics data and transform molecular information into biological knowledge. ·systems and synthetic biology, which focuses on complex interactions in biological systems and the emergent functional properties, and on the design and construction of new biological functions and systems. Its goal is to reflect the significant advances made in quantitatively investigating and modeling both natural and engineered life systems at the molecular and higher levels. The journal particularly encourages original papers that link novel theory with cutting-edge experiments, especially in the newly emerging and multi-disciplinary areas of research. The journal also welcomes high-quality reviews and perspective articles.
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