Impact of a new coronavirus infection on causes of death in Moscow and St. Petersburg

Abstract

The distribution of causes and mortality rates in Moscow and St. Petersburg (SPb) are different. Objective. To analyze changes in the distribution of causes of death in Moscow and St. Petersburg related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and methods. The data were used on the annual average population and the annual number of deaths in one-year age groups according to Rosstat for 2019—2021. Standardized mortality rates based on the European standard were calculated. An ABC analysis of the deaths and causes of death in the two cities was performed. Results. Despite the new coronavirus infection, mortality rates in St. Petersburg exceeded those in Moscow by 20% for three years. ABC analysis of the cause of death distribution showed a sharp decrease in the number of causes responsible for 80% of deaths. The 50 leading causes of death in St. Petersburg were more consistent. In the list of causes, mortality due to malignant neoplasms of various localizations in Moscow has shifted down by 3—11 positions, and in St. Petersburg, it increased by 10 positions. The proportion of malignant neoplasms exceeds half of the deaths due to gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases. Mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Moscow was 30% lower in 2021. Mortality from diseases associated with the gastrointestinal tract tended to decrease in both cities. Mortality from respiratory diseases was 15—20% lower in Moscow. The changing distribution of causes of death during a pandemic was expected for several reasons. In Moscow, compared to St. Petersburg in 2020, the «coronavirus infection» diagnosis was apparently used more «cautiously» as a cause of death. Conclusion. The coronavirus pandemic had a significant impact on mortality rates and distribution. The trends of mortality changes during the analyzed period were often inconsistent;however, mortality from leading causes in St. Petersburg remained higher than in Moscow.