Marmara Bölgesinde seçilen bazı Meşe türlerinin gelecekteki potansiyel yayılış alanlarının tahmin edilmesi

Abstract

Spreading in almost every region of Turkey, Oaks have a total area of 7.6 million hectares. The use of habitat suitability models provides important information and guides in the planning of oak forests, which directly contribute to the economy and provide ecological services that are vital for humans and other living things, as well as their monetary benefits. In this study, climate simulations were obtained by reducing the global model results to 2.5 km resolution with the COSMO-CLM model with a dynamic downscaling approach. Biological variables corresponding to the reference years 2031-2040, 2051-2060, 2071-2080 and 2091-2100 were calculated by using high-resolution meteorological parameters produced from the current and future RCP8.5 emission scenario. With the help of the MaxEnt program run with these variables, habitat suitability analysis was carried out for Quercus frainetto, Quercus cerris, Quercus petraea and Quercus infectoria species distributed in the Marmara Region. When the obtained results were examined, it was concluded that the areas of Quercus frainetto, Quercus cerris and Quercus petraea increased and Quercus infectoria decreased. It has been revealed that the suitable areas for Quercus frainetto increase from 2020 to 2050, but the highly suitable areas decrease from 2050 to 2070. It has been determined that future climatic conditions increase the habitat suitability of Quercus cerris and Quercus petraea. In contrast, areas suitable for Quercus infectoria have been observed to increase from 2020 to 2050, but decrease from 2050 to 2070 and thereafter from 2070 to 2100. As a result, it was emphasized that it is important to consider different climate change scenarios, related tree species habitat suitability and adaptation strategies in the planning of Turkish forests and silvicultural interventions.