La disuasión en la zona gris: una exploración teórica

Abstract

Deterrence studies have experienced four waves. The three first ones mainly focused on nuclear deterrence and the fourth one was aimed at deterring terrorism and the so-called «rogue states». However, deterrence below the threshold of war —that is, the conflict in the gray zone— has received little attention. This article proposes an exploratory theoretical framework to deter escalation within conflicts in the gray zone. First, and based on a review of both classical and recent literature some fundamental principles of deterrence theory applicable to gray zone escalation are presented. Then, the why and how of escalation in the gray zone are discussed. Next, the article analyzes the challenges to deterrence in the first two rungs of the scalation ladder. Finally, the article presents a series of theoretical keys for the practice of deterrence of conflicts in the gray zone.