Evaluation of WEAP-MODFLOW Model as an Integrated Water Resources Management Model for Sustainable Development (A Case Study: Gharesoo at Doab-Merek, Kermanshah, Iran)

Abstract

This paper evaluated an integrated water resources management approach through linked WEAP-MODFLOW model. Study area is Ravasnar-Sanjabi plain located in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. A MODFLOW model was evaluated and then, accepted as a groundwater model for the region in present research. Schematic WEAP model was provided as representing general features of water resources system after designing a conceptual model for the study area. The simplified rainfall-runoff model in WEAP was used to perform hydrological simulations. In the second step of present research, the groundwater model was linked to WEAP dynamically. Simulation years with 12 time steps per year included years of 2007-2015 for creating and verifying WEAP-MODFLOW model and years of 2015-2030 for performing scenarios. Statistical criteria included mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash-Sutcliffe (NASH), with Box plot diagram being selected to assess accuracy of calibrated model. Four scenarios were implemented for 2015 until 2030. They included unchanged present situation and situations with 35%, 45% and 57% reduction of groundwater and surface water withdrawal. Results showed that the fourth scenario with a 57% decrease in the extraction of surface water and groundwater resources was the best one. Based on this scenario, exploitation of the system will be sustainable, with the system recovering as 0.023 meter rising per year. Finally, the results of present study indicated that the approach was feasible for planning and managing water resources in spite of the lack of some data.