Demographic situation and prospects in Africa.

M. Ghallab, W. Hameed
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Abstract

Summarizes recent trends and projections through the year 2000 of population size, population growth, fertility, mortality, and age structure in Africa. Fertility is very high, mortality is fairly high but gradually declining, the age distribution is heavily weighted toward children, and the population growth rate has been increasing--it is at 2.77% and may rise yet more. All of these characteristics vary from region to region. It is estimated that fertility will not decline much if at all in the next 20 years due to a number of sociological factors, and the population may increase from 132 million in 1980 to 246 million or more in 2000. Several graphs and data tables are appended.
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非洲的人口状况和前景。
概述到2000年非洲人口规模、人口增长、生育率、死亡率和年龄结构的最新趋势和预测。生育率非常高,死亡率相当高但在逐渐下降,年龄分布向儿童倾斜,人口增长率一直在上升,目前为2.77%,可能还会继续上升。所有这些特征都因地区而异。据估计,由于若干社会因素,生育率在今后20年内即使根本不会下降,也不会下降太多,人口可能从1980年的1.32亿增加到2000年的2.46亿或更多。附加了几个图表和数据表。
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