Estimation of parity progression ratios from survey data on birth intervals in Egypt.

Abstract

Data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey on open and closed birth intervals were used to estimate parity progression ratios by area of residence and maternal age. Mean age at last birth was found to be positively related to final parity. Older women had larger numbers of children, and rural women ended childbearing later and began childbearing earlier than urban women. The minimum value for a first parity was 43.4 months, and the maximum value of women with a parity of 7 was 67.4 months. Parity progression ratios (PPR) were computed based on a simplification of Srinivasan's methods based on open and closed birth intervals. PPRs were higher in rural areas and tended to decrease with an increase in parity, with the exception of a parity of 8. 52% of women with a parity of 6 would be likely to advance to a higher parity: 63% in urban and 34% in rural areas. 61.1% of women 30-39 years old had completed their last births, and 2.6% of women 45-49 years old had completed childbearing. When age was controlled, the closed birth interval was a better predictor of parity than the open birth interval. Parity explained 15% of the variation in the open birth interval and 26% of the variance in the closed birth interval. Egyptian women have maintained high fertility.