Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010.

Abstract

Both fertility and mortality in Egypt have declined since 1900. The crude death rate (CDR) has, however, fallen far more than the crude birth rate (CBR), thus causing rapid population growth in the country over the century. The author applies a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze a time series of CBR and CDR, deriving predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt over the period 1992-2010. The predictions are used to get predicted values for the natural increase rate over the period. The procedure predicts a steady, but slow decline in the crude death rate coinciding with the original crude death rate time series since World War II, while the predicted values for crude birth rate will continue to move up and down in keeping with the original data reaching approximately 31 per 1000. The rate of natural increase will thus remain high, reaching 26/1000 for the year 2010. National policies and programs aiming to reduce this rate of natural increase should focus upon reducing the crude birth rate which remains extremely high. A reduction of one per thousand annually is a feasible target capable of rendering the goal of 10 per 1000 natural increase. Reducing infant mortality, enhancing family planning programs, and improving socioeconomic levels are the main tools to that end.