Determining the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Cover along with Some Socio-Economic Factors in the Olur Planning Unit (Turkey)

Abstract

Because forest cover changes directly affect the sustainability of the forest value, they should be observed carefully. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of land use/land cover change (LULCC) along with the effects of some socio-economic factors such as forest crime rates, rural population change, and annual gross national product (GNP) on spatiotemporal change of forest dynamics between 1970 and 2015 in the Olur forest planning unit using ArcGIS software and Patch Analyst extension.The results showed that high forest areas increased by 47.14% between 1970 and 2015. Coppice stands completely transitioned to other cover types in 2015 due to the changing of management policy in the case study area. Based on landscape pattern, the total number of patches (NP) increased by 50.07%, and mean patch size (MPS) decreased by 31.88% during the period. Results indicated that the forest ecosystem became more sensitive as it turned into a more spatially fragmented structure, making continued efforts to maintain biodiversity and insure sustainability a challenge. Depending on the decrease in the rural population and economic growth, there was a serious decrease in forest crime rates. This study has shown that socio-economic factors can be effective on landscape dynamics besides management activities.