Seismicity patterns before strong earthquakes in Greece

Abstract

The spatial distribution of the stress field around a fault, before its failure, depends on the focal mechanism of the ensuing rupture. In the preseismic stage, the main fault is locked and background seismicity is distributed in the surrounding area along small faults due to the raise of the stress level. This distribution is well correlated with changes of the stress field, when these are calculated considering the fault slipping on the opposite sense (back-slip model), before the incoming strong event. Studies of the seismicity around faults with known geometry, dimensions and slip properties could contribute in the seismic hazard assessment.In the present work, the spatio-temporal distribution of the smaller magnitude seismic activity before the occurrence of the four most recent (1995–2008) strong (M ≥ 6.4) shallow earthquakes in Greece is compared with the stress pattern necessary for the generation of the strong earthquakes. Studying the annual rate of occurrence it is found that in areas of positive pre-stress changes a sharp increase of the number of earthquakes is observed several years before the occurrence of the main shock. This increase lasts for a few years and then for several years before the main shock the occurrence rate declines but usually remains higher than it was before the sharp increase. Seismicity distribution in the respective areas of negative pre-stress changes shows a rather stable occurrence rate.