Quantitative estimations of hazards resulting from Typhoon Chanthu (2016) for assessing the impact in current and future climate

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.3178/HRL.13.20
S. Nayak, T. Takemi
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引用次数: 14

Abstract

Many recent studies have argued that tropical cyclones will become severer in future warming climate and may cause various catastrophic damages to human life and econ‐ omy. This study explores the impact of climate change on Typhoon Chanthu (2016) by performing a high-resolution (1 km) simulation for current and future climate. We focused on the typhoon intensity, size, heat fluxes, associ‐ ated precipitation and wind speed over northern Japan under global warming with different initial times at 6-hour interval. We find that the typhoon tracks in the present and future climates remained similar, however with stronger intensity and heat fluxes in warming climate condition. In the landfall region of Hokkaido in future climate, the maxi‐ mum wind speed and precipitation amount associated with the typhoon is significantly increased. The results imply that the damages associated with Typhoon Chanthu in future climate over northern Japan would be enhanced through strong wind, heavy rainfall and flooding.
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用于评估当前和未来气候影响的台风“灿都”(2016)灾害定量估计
近年来的许多研究表明,热带气旋在未来气候变暖中将变得更加严重,并可能对人类的生命和经济造成各种灾难性的损害。本研究通过对当前和未来气候进行高分辨率(1公里)模拟,探讨了气候变化对台风灿都(2016)的影响。研究了全球变暖背景下日本北部不同初始时间的台风强度、规模、热通量、相关降水和风速。结果表明,当前气候条件下的台风路径与未来气候条件下的台风路径相似,但在气候变暖条件下,台风的强度和热通量更强。在未来气候条件下,北海道登陆区与台风相关的最大风速和降水量显著增加。结果表明,台风“灿都”对未来日本北部气候造成的损害将通过强风、暴雨和洪水而增强。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
18.20%
发文量
9
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.
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