{"title":"Bias correction of d4PDF using a moving window method and their uncertainty analysis in estimation and projection of design rainfall depth","authors":"Satoshi Watanabe, Masafumi Yamada, Shiori Abe, Misako Hatono","doi":"10.3178/hrl.14.117","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":": Design rainfall depth, which is a fundamental index used in river planning, was estimated by rainfall obtained from super-ensemble simulations with bias correction, and the future change under 4 degree warming was projected. The modifications of existing bias correction methods were pro‐ posed to resolve the issue of overfitting and gap in size between reference and super-ensemble simulation data. A bias correction approach considering the bias between the historical experiment, the reference data, and the change between the historical and future experiments separately was defined as two-pass bias correction. The two-pass bias correction was performed with a moving window method that calculated moving average for time period and rank-order statistics. The result indicated that the approach pro‐ posed in this study estimates the design rainfall depth with a small error compared to that calculated without the moving window. The moving window method effectively resolves the issue of overfitting. The projection indicated that the range of projection among sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns is equivalent to 25% of the design rainfall depth for most basins and 60% for certain specific basins. The results indicate the importance of the appropriate bias correction and the consideration of range among the SST patterns for super-ensemble simulation data.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrological Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.14.117","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Abstract
: Design rainfall depth, which is a fundamental index used in river planning, was estimated by rainfall obtained from super-ensemble simulations with bias correction, and the future change under 4 degree warming was projected. The modifications of existing bias correction methods were pro‐ posed to resolve the issue of overfitting and gap in size between reference and super-ensemble simulation data. A bias correction approach considering the bias between the historical experiment, the reference data, and the change between the historical and future experiments separately was defined as two-pass bias correction. The two-pass bias correction was performed with a moving window method that calculated moving average for time period and rank-order statistics. The result indicated that the approach pro‐ posed in this study estimates the design rainfall depth with a small error compared to that calculated without the moving window. The moving window method effectively resolves the issue of overfitting. The projection indicated that the range of projection among sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns is equivalent to 25% of the design rainfall depth for most basins and 60% for certain specific basins. The results indicate the importance of the appropriate bias correction and the consideration of range among the SST patterns for super-ensemble simulation data.
期刊介绍:
Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.