Bias correction of d4PDF using a moving window method and their uncertainty analysis in estimation and projection of design rainfall depth

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.3178/hrl.14.117
Satoshi Watanabe, Masafumi Yamada, Shiori Abe, Misako Hatono
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

: Design rainfall depth, which is a fundamental index used in river planning, was estimated by rainfall obtained from super-ensemble simulations with bias correction, and the future change under 4 degree warming was projected. The modifications of existing bias correction methods were pro‐ posed to resolve the issue of overfitting and gap in size between reference and super-ensemble simulation data. A bias correction approach considering the bias between the historical experiment, the reference data, and the change between the historical and future experiments separately was defined as two-pass bias correction. The two-pass bias correction was performed with a moving window method that calculated moving average for time period and rank-order statistics. The result indicated that the approach pro‐ posed in this study estimates the design rainfall depth with a small error compared to that calculated without the moving window. The moving window method effectively resolves the issue of overfitting. The projection indicated that the range of projection among sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns is equivalent to 25% of the design rainfall depth for most basins and 60% for certain specific basins. The results indicate the importance of the appropriate bias correction and the consideration of range among the SST patterns for super-ensemble simulation data.
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移动窗法对d4PDF的偏差校正及其在设计降雨深度估计和投影中的不确定性分析
设计降雨深度是河流规划的基本指标,利用超集合模拟得到的降雨量进行了偏差校正,并预估了升温4℃下的未来变化。提出了对现有偏差校正方法的改进,以解决参考数据与超集合模拟数据之间的过拟合和尺寸差距问题。将历史实验、参考数据之间的偏差以及历史实验和未来实验之间的变化分别考虑在内的偏差校正方法定义为两次偏差校正。通过移动窗口法计算时间段和秩序统计的移动平均值,进行两道偏差校正。结果表明,与没有移动窗的计算相比,本研究中提出的方法估计的设计降雨深度误差较小。移动窗口法有效地解决了过拟合问题。预测结果表明,海表温度(SST)型间的预测范围在大多数盆地相当于设计降水深度的25%,在某些特定盆地相当于设计降水深度的60%。结果表明,对超集合模拟数据进行适当的偏置校正和考虑海温模式间的范围是非常重要的。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
18.20%
发文量
9
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.
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