Ensemble modeling for the potential distribution of invasive weed Verbesina encelioides in South Africa from 2020 to 2090

Abstract

Verbesina encelioides (Cav.) Benth. & Hook. Fil ex Gray (Asteraceae) is a perennial herb species belonging to the family Asteraceae. The plant is an aggressive obligate outbreeder weed that has invaded vast expanses of pastures, orchards, and forest areas in tropical and subtropical regions. The purpose of this study was to determine the suitability of current and potential future habitats for V. encelioides, an invasive weed in South Africa, using species distribution modelling techniques with the sdm package in R. The result of the ensemble model, based on current climatic conditions, highlights that Verbesina encelioides has a high probability of occurrence in all nine provinces of South Africa, across all the projected future scenarios, namely, 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Area values ranged from 810,612.09 km 2 in 2070, an increase of 4.23% over the current projection, to 663,356.44 km 2 in 2090, a decrease of 14.7% from the current projection. The outcome of these predictions showed that V. encelioides would benefit from the predicted climate change in South Africa. The findings could be used as a warning to implement early detection and a