COVID-19 risk factors for mortality in hospitalized patients: results of a retrospective study

Abstract

Objective. To identify risk factors for fatal outcome and COVID-19-associated liver damage in hospitalized adult patients with coronavirus infection. Materials and Methods. In a retrospective cohort study, 389 cases of patients with coronavirus infection complicated by bilateral viral pneumonia were studied. Demographic characteristics, clinical features of the course of the disease, anamnestic data, results of laboratory and instrumental methods of examination were analyzed and correlated with mortality. At the time of admission, the following were taken into account: fever, severity of the patient’s condition according to COVID-19 classification of severity, body mass index (BMI), oxygen saturation (SpO2), percentage of lung tissue damage according to computed tomography (CT). Laboratory indices of biochemical blood analysis were assessed in dynamics: alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin, total protein, albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP). Data analysis was performed using the R programming language (ver. 4.1.1.). Results. The following risk factors, assessed at the time of hospitalization, increased the likelihood of death: severe and extremely severe condition of the patient (RR = 4.77; 95% CI: 3.33–6.83); SpO2 less than 93% (RR = 3.76; 95% CI: 2.57–5.49); diabetes mellitus (RR = 2.94; 95% CI: 2.01–4.30); lung tissue damage CT-3 and CT-4 (RR = 2.66; 95% CI: 1.79–3.75); concomitant chronic pyelonephritis and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (RR = 2.59; 95% CI: 1.79–3.74); age 65 years and older (RR = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.70–3.67); ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR = 2.39; 95% CI: 1.42–4.01); an increase in the level of CRP more than 15 mg/l (RR = 2.22; 95% CI: 1.16–4.24); BMI 35 kg/m2 or more (RR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.28–2.77); AST level more than 2 upper limit of normal (ULN) (RR = 1.75; 95% CI: 1.20–2.55). Risk factors for an increase in AST more than 2 ULN were: SpO2 less than 93% (RR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.15– 2.03), severe and extremely severe course of coronavirus infection (RR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.38–2.43), concomitant chronic liver disease (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.08–1.95). Conclusions. Risk factors for fatal COVID-19 in hospitalized patients are: severe and extremely severe initial condition of the patient, oxygen saturation less than 93%, lung tissue damage more than 50%, age older than 65 years, presence of concomitant diabetes mellitus, chronic pyelonephritis and CHD, CHD, obesity, increased CRP level more than 15 mg/l, and AST more than 70 units/l. Elevation of AST over 2 IU/L can be considered as one of the prognostic laboratory markers of adverse prognosis COVID-19.