FORECASTING BANKRUPTCY OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS

Abstract

This paper is dedicated to the finding out the optimal and objective models for predicting the bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises in the current conditions in Ukraine. The impact of endogenous and exogenous factors on the functioning of enterprises in the agricultural sector is considered. Attention is drawn to indicators of diagnostics of the financial condition of agricultural enterprises. The main reasons that led to the increase in the share of unprofitable enterprises, the deterioration of the indicators of the financial activity of agricultural enterprises and created the prerequisites for the development of crisis phenomena were established. The main reason for the increase in the production cost of agricultural enterprises in the current conditions has been revealed. Emphasis is placed on the importance of timely identification of a financial crisis’ signs and identification of a crisis situation causes through the implementation of anti-crisis financial management at enterprises. The most used methods of determining the integral indicator of the probability of bankruptcy were studied. Emphasis is placed on the use of discriminant models for rapid diagnostics of exiting the financial crisis of enterprises in the process of anti-crisis financial management. The probability of bankruptcy was determined based on the case of the largest agricultural enterprise in Ukraine - PRJSC "MHP" on the basis of foreign and domestic methods of discriminant analysis, namely, the models: Altman, Taffler, determination of the level of viability of the enterprise, Tereshchenko, Matviychuk. Attention is paid to models of discriminant analysis using indicators of profitability level and those where profit is not a primary indicator in calculations. It was found that not all bankruptcy forecasting methods show unequivocal calculations, because they do not take into account industry differences and peculiarities. Based on the research, it was determined that the most objective model for the bankruptcy forecasting of agricultural enterprises is the universal and specific O.Tereshchenko model. It has been proven that these models most objectively demonstrate the reasons that influenced the decrease in the integral indicator of the enterprise under study.