EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSIS OF MISCARRIAGE IN UKRAINE AND LVIV REGION

Abstract

The aim. Substantiation of the prognostic component in the process of developing the model of prevention of miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine. Materials and methods. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of the miscarriage dynamics among the female population of Ukraine and Lviv region for the period of 2014-2021 was performed, and prognosis of the indicators of this pathology until 2026 was established. The work uses the methods of a systemic approach and structural-logical analysis, medical-statistical analysis , prognostic methodology using exponential smoothing according to the two-parameter Holt method. Results and discussion. Over the analyzed period from 2014 to 2021, an increase in the index of the ratio of the total rate of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies (cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies) from 5.50 in 2014 to 6.22 in 2021 in Ukraine and from 3.57 to 4.72 in Lviv region, respectively, was noted. In order to predict the ratio of miscarriages to the total number of pregnancies we have chosen the exponential smoothing method according to the two-parameter Holt method. In our opinion, this indicator will be the least dependent on the impact of war and COVID-19 pandemic.  All other conditions remaining unchanged, the prognosis results predict that in 2026, the ratio of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies in Ukraine will amount to 6.37 cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies, and 5.38 cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies in Lviv region. Conclusions. Analysis of the dynamic indicators of the ratio of stillbirths to the total number of pregnancies over the analyzed 8-year period both in Ukraine and in Lviv region showed a trend towards annual growth of this index. A worsening of the demographic situation according to the results of the study, as well as the likely development of a demographic crisis in connection with the state of war in Ukraine and the mass migration of the female population provoked by the war, requires searching for all possible ways to prevent miscarriage and take into account this prognostic-negative trend in the development of preventive programs.