Monte Carlo simulation risk analysis for underground mining projects

Abstract

This study presents the application of the Monte Carlo method as a procedure of risk analysis in economic evaluation, covering, through the evaluation methodology presented, the stages of conceptual and pre-feasibility projects. In addition to the literature review, the methodology was applied to a cash flow prepared for an underground gold mine project in Brazil, exploited through the long hole mining method. Thus, deterministic evaluation methodologies were compared with the probabilistic output provided by the Monte Carlo method. The risk analysis made it possible to evaluate the impact of variations in the economic model’s input data: ore content, tonnage, ore price, OPEX (Operational Expenditure), CAPEX (Capital Expenditure), commissioning time, and mining recovery. In the example studied, the simulated scenarios indicated a 98.6% chance of the NPV (Net Present Value) being greater than zero and a mean NPV of $ M 261.186 versus $ M 287.513 from the deterministic cash flow evaluation. All these analyses are essential to evaluate the risks of failure, investments and economic and financial viability of a mining enterprise, being essential for planning and decision making in similar studies. probabilística Carlo. modelo econômico: investimentos fundamental decisão similares. Tornado Sensitivity Analysis.