The currency board in Bulgaria and its impact on sectoral economic activity

IF 0.7 Q2 AREA STUDIES Eastern Journal of European Studies Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.47743/ejes-2022-0106
Nikolay Peykov
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper investigates the impulse reaction of five economic sectors to various monetary policy shocks under the currency board regime in Bulgaria. For that purpose, we have estimated five reduced form VAR models with quarterly data over the period 2001Q1 to 2019Q4 for the sectors of agriculture, manufacturing; construction; real estate, and trade, transport and accommodation activities. The relevant impulse response functions represent three monetary transmission channels, in particular via the overnight interbank market rate, the consumer price index and the real effective exchange rate. We found that there is strong heterogeneity between sectors response to the different monetary policy shocks even under a currency board regime. The differences in the reaction are both in terms of depth, direction and duration. The monetary policy has strong positive impact on construction, and to a lesser extent on manufacturing. The response of the agriculture; trade, transport and accommodation activities is rather negative especially in the long term.
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保加利亚的货币发行局及其对部门经济活动的影响
本文研究了保加利亚货币发行局制度下五个经济部门对各种货币政策冲击的冲动反应。为此,我们估计了五个简化形式的VAR模型,其中包括2001年第一季度至2019年第四季度的农业、制造业;建设;房地产,贸易,运输和住宿活动。相关的脉冲响应函数代表了三种货币传导渠道,特别是通过隔夜银行间市场利率、消费者价格指数和实际有效汇率。我们发现,即使在货币发行局制度下,不同部门对不同货币政策冲击的反应也存在很强的异质性。反应的不同在于反应的深度、方向和持续时间。货币政策对建筑业有很强的积极影响,对制造业的影响较小。农业的反应;贸易、运输和住宿活动是相当消极的,特别是从长远来看。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
16.70%
发文量
3
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: The Eastern Journal of European Studies (EJES) seeks to provide a forum for multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary dialogue between ideas, and a framework for theoretical and empirical analyses covering major topics in European studies: European history, politics, European economy and European policies, EU community law, European culture and society. EJES encourages studies focusing on Central and Eastern Europe (including Eastern Neighbourhood) in order to better understand its transformations induced by the integration process and to address its specific challenges by supporting scientific debates on the general European theory and practice. Furthermore, the editorial board regularly invites distinguished guest editors to coordinate thematic issues.
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