Circularidades económicas y observación de segundo orden: La realidad de las calificaciones crediticias

E. Esposito
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

800x600 Can observers observe the economy from the outside? Recent developments in economic sociology tend to blur the classic distinction and combination of economy and society and to move to a model in which the observer is necessarily inside the society he describes. The behavior of financial actors can then be analyzed by combining two concepts: beauty contest and moral hazard - a combination that allows for a translation of their behavior into the terms and the tradition of observation theory. Keynes' beauty contest can be interpreted as a systematic recognition of second-order observation: financial op­erators primarily observe other observers and what they observe. This observation produces particular circularities - including the insoluble problem of moral hazard, which reproduces Merton's famous model of self-defeating/self-fulfilling prophecies in the field of finance. If finance consists in second-order observation, however, then its movements can no longer be explained in reference to the world, but in reference to observation and its structures: the reality reference of finance is increasingly provided by ratings, which can only offer information concerning what others observe. The spread of ratings in recent decades and the doubts about their reliability are related to the generalized move of modern so­ciety to second-order observation, which produces specific problems and specific puzzles, as well as structures and constraints. Normal 0 21 false false false ES-CL X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
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经济循环与二级观察:信用评级的现实
观察者能从外部观察经济吗?经济社会学的最新发展趋向于模糊经济和社会的经典区分和结合,并转向观察者必须在他所描述的社会内部的模型。金融参与者的行为可以通过结合两个概念来分析:选美比赛和道德风险——这种结合可以将他们的行为转化为观察理论的术语和传统。凯恩斯的选美比赛可以被解释为对二阶观察的系统认可:金融操作员主要观察其他观察者和他们观察到的东西。这种观察产生了特殊的循环——包括无法解决的道德风险问题,它再现了默顿在金融领域自我挫败/自我实现预言的著名模型。然而,如果金融是二阶观察,那么它的运动就不能再参照世界来解释,而是参照观察及其结构来解释:金融的现实参照越来越多地由评级提供,而评级只能提供关于其他人观察到的信息。近几十年来评级的普及和对其可靠性的怀疑与现代社会向二阶观察的普遍转移有关,这产生了特定的问题和特定的困惑,以及结构和约束。正常0 21假假假ES-CL X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /*样式定义*/表。mso-style-name:"Tabla normal";mso-tstyle-rowband-size: 0;mso-tstyle-colband-size: 0;mso-style-noshow:是的;mso-style-priority: 99;mso-style-parent:“”;Mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin: 0厘米;mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;字体大小:10.0分;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.30
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期刊介绍: The Journal Revista Mad - Universidad de Chile (www.revistamad.uchile.cl) is a biannual electronic publication sponsored by the Master in Systemic Analysis Applied to Society, belonging to the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Chile. The journal Revista Mad publishes original scientific papers in the field of social sciences, research advances, essays, book reviews and translations, in which theoretical perspectives and empirical approaches related to social systems theory and social constructivism, are applied. However, other theoretical perspectives, which contribute to Latin American social sciences, are also accepted.
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Afterword. A Change Is Gonna Come, Same as It Ever Was Sixteen. The Mad Men in the Attic. Seriality and Identity in the Modern Babylon Four. After the Sex, What? A Feminist Reading of Reproductive History in Mad Men Nine. Against Depth. Looking at Surface through the Kodak Carousel Five. The Writer as Producer; or, The Hip Figure after HBO
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