Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q4 BUSINESS Rbgn-Revista Brasileira De Gestao De Negocios Pub Date : 2017-10-06 DOI:10.7819/RBGN.V19I66.2943
Marcelo Nunes Fonseca, E. O. Pamplona, P. R. Junior, V. Valerio
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.
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油田开发的可行性分析:产量分成协议中的实物期权方法
目的-本研究的目的是通过应用实物期权理论,分析在产量分成协议下在非洲开发实际油田的可行性。设计/方法论/方法-研究是根据建模和仿真的原则进行的,基于一个由三个阶段组成的结构,以促进项目可行性分析。研究发现——最初,根据传统方法,我们建议决策者不投资该油田的开发。然而,通过将不确定性纳入决策过程,获得了其他结果。虽然减少了,但我们证明了有可行性的可能性。其次,利用二项模型表示原油价格扩散过程,计算考虑油田延迟开发灵活性的资产价值。▽原创性/价值=结果表明,如果经营者拥有对未来进行投资的权利,并等待油价上涨,那么推迟油田开发将增加其资产的价值。拟议的方法是一种贡献,提供补贴,以改善评估投资的决策过程。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
9.10%
发文量
16
审稿时长
50 weeks
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