Is increased flooding in Bangkok a result of rising local temperatures?

IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of Hydrology X Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100095
Apin Worawiwat , Chavalit Chaleeraktrakoon , Ashish Sharma
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

The recent increase in the frequency of urban flooding in Bangkok has led to speculation that global warming may be to blame. Assessing this, however, is challenging, as Bangkok represents an ever-changing environment with changing storm drainage infrastructure, limited flood and precipitation data, and a tropical setting that complicates the relationship precipitation extremes exhibit with temperature. This study attempts to create a framework to investigate the merits of the above speculation, using ground observations of precipitation maxima, flood inundation, and dew point temperature, along with simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to present multiple lines of evidence to compensate for the weaknesses any individual evidence may have. The complexity of flooding in an urban stormwater drainage network is accounted by focussing instead on flood inundation information conditional to the incident dew point temperature which is increasing as a result of warming. The assessment identifies a markedly different pattern of change in the east versus the west of the city, attributing this to population change in the two parts, further complicating the link to global warming. Application of the developed methodology using the most recent GCM simulations available suggests the increase in flooding is a pattern that can be expected to continue.

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曼谷洪水的增加是当地气温上升的结果吗?
最近曼谷城市洪水频率的增加引发了人们的猜测,认为全球变暖可能是罪魁祸首。然而,评估这一点具有挑战性,因为曼谷代表着一个不断变化的环境,暴雨排水基础设施不断变化,洪水和降水数据有限,热带环境使极端降水量与温度的关系复杂化。本研究试图创建一个框架来调查上述推测的优点,使用降水量最大值、洪水淹没和露点温度的地面观测,以及一般环流模型(GCM)的模拟,来提供多条证据线,以弥补任何单个证据可能存在的弱点。城市雨水排水网络中洪水的复杂性是通过关注洪水淹没信息来解释的,而洪水淹没信息是以事件露点温度为条件的,露点温度由于变暖而增加。评估发现,该市东部和西部的变化模式明显不同,将其归因于这两个地区的人口变化,使与全球变暖的联系进一步复杂化。使用最新的GCM模拟应用所开发的方法表明,洪水的增加是一种预计会持续的模式。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology X
Journal of Hydrology X Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
2.50%
发文量
20
审稿时长
25 weeks
期刊最新文献
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