Intelligent Model of Potential Risks in Emergence of Man-Made Disaster

Abstract

A man-made catastrophe is considered as an information display of catastrophic development of events in the management system, a peculiar projection of  a man-made catastrophe on the information plane. The paper presents an intellectual model, considers dynamics and ranges of emergency changes in management system parameters, assesses potential risks and  threats  of  catastrophe  emergence.  It  has been  shown  that  at  the  macro-structural  level  for  semantic   description of a catastrophe, it is quite effective to use a tree-like network of scenarios, which displays the conceptual scheme of the subject and problem areas of the catastrophe and is based on judgments of experts, their experience and intuition. This allows probabilistic methods  to  assess  potential  risks  of  a catastrophe using two quantitative indicators: risk (probability) level of  phenomenon occurrence at a certain control point of time and the volume of the expected material loss. It has been suggested that for assessment of possible microstate the fuzzy logic should be applied for each critical object parameter, tolerance limits and functions of affiliation with the fields of fail-safe object functioning should be set by expertise, migration trajectories of relative parameter values should be monitored and terms of their forced return to the working field of regular functioning should be duly provided. Quantitative indicators having imprecise origin have been introduced in the intelligent model of potential risks to assess dynamics of catastrophe threat. One of these indicators is the expert level of catastrophe occurrence during migration of a group of abnormally dangerous parameters of a technical object. The time interval has also been considered which is measured from the current moment to the expected moment of catastrophe occurrence at the preset maximum permissible level of catastrophe threat.