Impacts of climate change on streamflow and reservoir inflows in the Upper Manyame sub-catchment of Zimbabwe

Abstract

This study focused on the Upper Manyame sub-catchment which covers an area of approximately 3 786 km2 and forms part of the Manyame catchment, one of the seven catchments of Zimbabwe. Manyame catchment has its source in Marondera town and drains into the Zambezi River downstream of the Kariba Dam and upstream of the Cahora Bassa Dam, in the northern part of the country. This study assessed potential climate change impacts on the streamflow and reservoir inflows in the Upper Manyame sub-catchment. Hydrologic simulations for future climate (2030s and 2060s) were carried out using statistically downscaled bias-corrected variables from the HadCM3 (HadCM3A2a and HadCM3B2a scenarios) and CanESM2 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) global circulation models. The HEC–HMS hydrological model was set up for two gauged micro-catchments and eight ungauged tributary micro-catchments. Model calibration for gauged micro-catchments of Upper Manyame over the period from 2000–2010 revealed satisfactory model performance of 4.3% (RVE) and 0.1 (bias) for Mukuvisi micro-catchment and 9.5% (RVE) and 0.15 (bias) for Marimba micro-catchment. Model simulations resulted in a projected decrease in streamflow by 7.4–26.4% for HadCM3. For CanESM2, simulations resulted in a projected decrease in streamflow by 2.5–34.7%. Reservoir inflows into Lake Chivero and Lake Manyame, the main water supply sources for Harare, will decrease by 10.5–18% for HadCM3 and by 8–33.6% for CanESM2.