Long-Run Fiscal Consequences of Refugee Migration – The Case of Austria

Abstract

We use a rich numerical OLG model of Auerbach-Kotlikoff type to simulate the long-run effects of refugee migration starting 2015 for a country with an aging society and a generous welfare system, namely Austria. The respective refugee cohorts are on average younger, less educated and less productive than both natives and the average migrant. The net fiscal contribution results from two opposing effects: a positive demographic effect which is counteracted by worse labor market outcomes. We robustly find that public debt is higher throughout the simulation horizon 2015–2060 compared to the baseline. We further analyze the group-specific welfare consequences resulting from differentiated wage effects.