Accounting for the role of asymptomatic patients in understanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study from Singapore

Abstract

Abstract Objectives To forecast the true growth of COVID-19 cases in Singapore after accounting for asymptomatic infections, we study and make modifications to the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) epidemiological model by incorporating hospitalization dynamics and the presence of asymptomatic cases. We then compare the simulation results of our three epidemiological models of interest against the daily reported COVID-19 case counts during the time period from 23rd January to 6th April 2020. Finally, we compare and evaluate on the performance and accuracy of the aforementioned models’ simulations. Methods Three epidemiological models are used to forecast the true growth of COVID-19 case counts by accounting for asymptomatic infections in Singapore. They are the exponential model, SEIR model with hospitalization dynamics (SEIHRD), and the SEIHRD model with inclusion of asymptomatic cases (SEAIHRD). Results Simulation results of all three models reflect underestimation of COVID-19 cases in Singapore during the early stages of the pandemic. At a 40% asymptomatic proportion, we report basic reproduction number R 0 = 3.28 and 3.74 under the SEIHRD and SEAIHRD models respectively. At a 60% asymptomatic proportion, we report R 0 = 3.48 and 3.96 under the SEIHRD and SEAIHRD models respectively. Conclusions Based on the results of different simulation scenarios, we are highly confident that the number of COVID-19 cases in Singapore was underestimated during the early stages of the pandemic. This is supported by the exponential increase of COVID-19 cases in Singapore as the pandemic evolved.