{"title":"Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU*","authors":"Dany Lang, M. Setterfield, Ibrahim Shikaki","doi":"10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0041","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We address the question posed in the title of this paper by investigating recent developments in the literature that estimates the NAIRU. A necessary condition for the existence of a NAIRU is dynamic homogeneity: the Phillips curve should be homogenous of degree one in lagged and/or expected inflation. But contemporary approaches to estimating the NAIRU typically assume rather than test for dynamic homogeneity, thus assuming (rather than testing for) the existence of a NAIRU. We argue that these developments remove the NAIRU from the domain of testable hypotheses and transform the concept into an article of faith. This does not constitute scientific progress.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0041","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
We address the question posed in the title of this paper by investigating recent developments in the literature that estimates the NAIRU. A necessary condition for the existence of a NAIRU is dynamic homogeneity: the Phillips curve should be homogenous of degree one in lagged and/or expected inflation. But contemporary approaches to estimating the NAIRU typically assume rather than test for dynamic homogeneity, thus assuming (rather than testing for) the existence of a NAIRU. We argue that these developments remove the NAIRU from the domain of testable hypotheses and transform the concept into an article of faith. This does not constitute scientific progress.
期刊介绍：
The European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention (EJEEP) is a peer-reviewed journal which serves as a forum for studies in macroeconomic theory, economic institutions and economic policies. The managing editors aim for productive debates involving one or more variants of heterodox economics, and invite contributions acknowledging the pluralism of research approaches. The submission of both theoretical and empirical work is encouraged. The managing editors contend that a wide variety of institutional and social factors shape economic life and economic processes. Only a careful study and integration of such factors into economics will lead to theoretical progress and to competent economic policy recommendations. This was clearly demonstrated by the inadequacy of orthodox economics, based on neoclassical foundations, to provide suitable explanations and responses to recent financial and economic crises.
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