FORECASTING THE PRODUCTION OF MAIZE AND FABA BEAN CROPS IN THREE DESERT GOVERNORATES IN EGYPT IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

Grain and pulse crops, especially maize and faba beans, are strategic crops because of their importance as a major source of human food. However, the rate of self-sufficiency is still low as production is unable to fulfill the growing domestic demand. This is reflected in the low selfsufficiency rate, where the maize crop decreased from 46.1 % in 2017 to 42.6 % in 2019, and the faba bean crop from 30.7 % in 2017 to 10.3 % in 2019. The state resorted to imports to bridge the food gap, which amounted to about 9.4 million tons for the maize crop, 865 thousand tons for the faba bean crop. This research aimed to identify the current situation and the future prospects of maize and faba bean crops, at the national and three desert governorates levels in Egypt in light of climate change. The results of the ARIMA model forecast showed that there was an expected increase in the gap of maize crop, in Egypt, from about 10,958 thousand tons in 2026 to about 12,223 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 30.1 % in 2019 and an annual average about 11,590 thousand tons during the period (2026-2030). While, the self-sufficiency of maize in Egypt decreased from about 38.4% in 2026 to about 34.5% in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 9.9% for 2019. The results of the forecast showed that there was an increase in the gap of faba bean crop in Egypt from about 2,495.5 thousand tons in 2026 to about 3,783.4 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 337.4 % over 2011. The self-sufficiency of faba bean crop in Egypt was shown to decrease from about 10.9 % in 2026 to about 1.5 % during 2030, by an estimated decrease of about 85.4 % over 2019. The forecast results showed a decrease in the area under cultivation from about 0.06 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.001 thousand acres in 2030, an estimated 98.9 % decrease from 2018. The forecast results also showed that the area cultivated with faba bean crop in the New Valley Governorate decreased from about 1.22 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.20 thousand acres in 2030 with an estimated decrease of about 89.1 %. The production decreased from about 1.54 thousand tons in 2026 to about 0.36 thousand tons in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 84.5 % from 2019. In addition, the production of maize in North Sinai Governorate decreased from about 0.07 thousand tons in 2026 to about 0.01 thousand tons in 2030, an estimated 8.3 % decrease from 2019. The forecast of the maize crop production with climate change not taken into consideration, showed a decrease in production of maize crop in North Sinai governorate. While forecasting the production of maize crop with climate change in consideration, the most influential element studied was higher temperature, which was found to increase on average by one degree Celsius during the crop growth season, which resulted in a decrease in production by about 22.6 %. In case of forecasting the production of faba bean crop, the results showed a decrease in production of country beans in the New Valley Governorate with climate changes not taken into consideration. While, forecasting the production of faba bean crop taking into consideration Hanan W. Ghaly ................................................................................................................ 68 climate changes, where the most productive elements (the higher temperature) were studied, it was found that an increase in the average temperature by one degree Celsius during the crop growth season would result in a decrease in production by about 16%. Recommendations: The research recommends the horizontal and vertical expansion by increasing the area cultivated with the maize crop in the desert Governorates of North Sinai, and beans crop in the Governorate of the New Valley. This is to fill the gap between production and consumption, where a decrease in the proportion of self-sufficiency and an increase of the imports of maize and faba bean crops is forecasted by 2030. This is along with increasing agricultural research spending, especially research on increased productivity and devising new varieties capable of adapting to climate change, and varieties that reduce water consumption and drought-tolerance.