Explaining the variation in historical trends for agriculture and population density using soil, climate, and topography data. A case study from Denmark
Yannik E. Roell, N. M. Jacobsen, M. Graversgaard, Nele Lohrum, A. Beucher, M. Greve, M. Greve, C. Kjeldsen
{"title":"Explaining the variation in historical trends for agriculture and population density using soil, climate, and topography data. A case study from Denmark","authors":"Yannik E. Roell, N. M. Jacobsen, M. Graversgaard, Nele Lohrum, A. Beucher, M. Greve, M. Greve, C. Kjeldsen","doi":"10.1080/00167223.2021.1949366","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Agricultural land use and population density have been increasing around the world. Determining if physical geography is a driving factor of historical change on a larger scale has received little research interest in the past outside local-scale case studies. The aim of this study was to model historical agricultural development and population density throughout Denmark using geographically weighted regression with environmental variables and data for parishes from 1860 to 1890. We analysed rye production, sheep count, and population density on the national scale. The incorporated variables were selected to represent aspects of soil, climate, and topography. Models for rye and sheep had high explanatory power (global R2: between 0.60 and 0.68) for both time periods whereas the model for population density had low explanatory power (global R2: 0.09 in 1860 and 0.25 in 1890). The results indicate that historical development in agricultural geography can be explained using physical geography. However, population density is more complex due to influences of industrialization, culture and scalar structure. This questions the classical understanding that soil quality is a strong determinant of population density on its own in Denmark. We instead argue that soil quality has a dynamic multidirectional interplay with human and agricultural activity.","PeriodicalId":45790,"journal":{"name":"Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography","volume":"35 1","pages":"95 - 113"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00167223.2021.1949366","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
ABSTRACT Agricultural land use and population density have been increasing around the world. Determining if physical geography is a driving factor of historical change on a larger scale has received little research interest in the past outside local-scale case studies. The aim of this study was to model historical agricultural development and population density throughout Denmark using geographically weighted regression with environmental variables and data for parishes from 1860 to 1890. We analysed rye production, sheep count, and population density on the national scale. The incorporated variables were selected to represent aspects of soil, climate, and topography. Models for rye and sheep had high explanatory power (global R2: between 0.60 and 0.68) for both time periods whereas the model for population density had low explanatory power (global R2: 0.09 in 1860 and 0.25 in 1890). The results indicate that historical development in agricultural geography can be explained using physical geography. However, population density is more complex due to influences of industrialization, culture and scalar structure. This questions the classical understanding that soil quality is a strong determinant of population density on its own in Denmark. We instead argue that soil quality has a dynamic multidirectional interplay with human and agricultural activity.
期刊介绍:
DJG is an interdisciplinary, international journal that publishes peer reviewed research articles on all aspects of geography. Coverage includes such topics as human geography, physical geography, human-environment interactions, Earth Observation, and Geographical Information Science. DJG also welcomes articles which address geographical perspectives of e.g. environmental studies, development studies, planning, landscape ecology and sustainability science. In addition to full-length papers, DJG publishes research notes. The journal has two annual issues. Authors from all parts of the world working within geography or related fields are invited to publish their research in the journal.