Forecasting per Capita Energy Consumption in China Using a Spatial Discrete Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

To overcome the limitations of the present grey models in spatial data analysis, a spatial weight matrix is incorporated into the grey discrete model to create the SDGM(1,1,m) model, and the L1-SDGM(1,1,m) model is proposed, considering the time lag effect to realize the simultaneous forecasting of spatial data. The validation of the SDGM(1,1,m) and L1-SDGM(1,1,m) models is achieved, and finally, the per capita energy consumption levels (PCECs) of 30 provinces in China from 2020 to 2025 is predicted using SDGM(1,1,m) with a metabolic mechanism. We draw the following conclusions. First, the SDGM(1,1,m) and L1-SDGM(1,1,m) models established in this paper are reasonable and improve forecasting accuracy while supporting interactive regional forecasting. Second, although SDGM(1,1,m) resembles the DGM(1,n) model, their modeling conditions and targets are different. Third, the SDGM(1,1,m) and L1-SDGM(1,1,m) models can be used to effectively analyze the spatial spillover effects within the selected modeling interval while achieving accurate predictions; notably, from 2010 to 2017, the PCECs of Inner Mongolia and Qinghai were most affected by spatial factors, while the PCECs of Jilin, Jiangxi, and other provinces were influenced little by spatial factors. Fourth, predictions indicate that the PCECs of most Chinese provinces will increase under the current grey conditions, while the PCECs of provinces such as Beijing are expected to decrease.