{"title":"What Can Ukraine Learn from Aufbau Ost?","authors":"U. Blum","doi":"10.2478/ie-2023-0023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article uses Aufbau Ost (or reconstruction of the East) of the new German states as a structural model to estimate the possible costs of an Aufbau Ost 2.0 of Ukraine while taking institutional differences into account. Based on three approaches, the model is validated for the new German states – namely capital coefficients, actual investment flows and actual public transfers – and applied to Ukraine. Key indicators for Germany from 2021 are used as a basis. The economic goal for Ukraine set in this article is to reach Poland’s present level of prosperity in 15 years, which implies a growth rate of 9% per year. This will require a total of US $8.5 trillion over 15 years, which can, however, be financed to a considerable extent by endogenous, investment-driven economic growth if the institutional framework conditions are designed in a market-economy way, especially the taxation system. Transfers and capital imports must close a current account deficit of about US $200 billion per year.","PeriodicalId":35662,"journal":{"name":"Intereconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Intereconomics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0023","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract This article uses Aufbau Ost (or reconstruction of the East) of the new German states as a structural model to estimate the possible costs of an Aufbau Ost 2.0 of Ukraine while taking institutional differences into account. Based on three approaches, the model is validated for the new German states – namely capital coefficients, actual investment flows and actual public transfers – and applied to Ukraine. Key indicators for Germany from 2021 are used as a basis. The economic goal for Ukraine set in this article is to reach Poland’s present level of prosperity in 15 years, which implies a growth rate of 9% per year. This will require a total of US $8.5 trillion over 15 years, which can, however, be financed to a considerable extent by endogenous, investment-driven economic growth if the institutional framework conditions are designed in a market-economy way, especially the taxation system. Transfers and capital imports must close a current account deficit of about US $200 billion per year.
IntereconomicsEconomics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
66
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍:
Intereconomics publishes papers dealing with economic and social policy issues in Europe respectively in Euroland. The journal consists of the sections editorial, forum and articles. The editorial section contains brief comments on current questions of economic policy in Europe or effecting Europe. In the forum, several authors (researchers, politicians, representatives of trade unions and of employers associations etc.) voice their opinions on one particular current economic policy problem effecting Europe. The articles deal with economic policy issues and trends in Europe. They are mostly written by researchers in economics. Officially cited as: Intereconomics