Analysis on Influencing Factors on the Fluctuation of Commercial Housing Prices Based on ECM Model: Taking Changsha as an Example

Abstract

Based on the data from Changsha real estate market, this study builds a long-term equilibrium model and a short-term error correction model on the fluctuation of Changsha commercial housing prices. It shows that, GDP, urbanization rate, per capita saving and completed area of housing are the main factors on the fluctuation of Changsha commercial housing prices in the long term, while the influence from the factors of total housing investment, sold area of housing and per capita living area are limited. In short term, the fluctuation of Changsha housing prices has no ability of self-revising, and a real estate bubble is building in the whole market.