Rigorous Multi-Scenario Uncertainty Analysis: An Easy Way to Create an Ensemble of Many Concepts, with Hundreds of Uncertainties, and the Power of the Cloud to Evaluate Thousands of Realizations in Hours

Abstract

When key geological scenario uncertainties, captured in multiple conceptual models, are combined with continuous parameters, the evaluation of a representative sample set quickly becomes unmanageable, laborious and too time consuming to execute. A workflow is presented that enables users to easily model conceptual as well as parametric uncertainties of the reservoir without the necessity of any complex scripting. The chain of models for all concepts is presented in one view, to provide overview of the key differences between concepts used. An ensemble of geologically sound samples can be created taking into account parameter dependencies and probabilities of concepts. The chain of models per concept can easily be (re)executed. A case study is presented that consists of multiple concepts based on different hierarchical stratigraphic models in combination with different fault models, each of which with its own fluid- (defined contacts per compartment), grid- (sub-layering and areal resolution) and rock property models. Volumetric calculations are run on an ensemble to get static model observables like GRV, Pore Volume, Oil-In-Place, etc., reported by multiple sub-regions of the model in combination with a lease boundary. (When coupled with dynamic simulation, observables like ultimate recovery, break-through timing, etc. could also be obtained). As thousands of realizations were run concurrently, run time was reduced from weeks to hours. Results reveal the distribution and dependency of observables like GRV on top-structure-depth uncertainty and contact-level uncertainty. For in-place volumes the full suite of concepts and other parametric uncertainties including the stochastic uncertainties (i.e. seed) is analyzed. This also enables the identification of the key uncertainties that impact equity the most, which can be of great commercial value during equity negotiations. This workflow demonstrates how, with the power of Cloud computing, rigorous evaluation of multiple concepts combined with many parametric uncertainties has been achieved within practical turn-around times. As such it overcomes the prohibitive hurdles of the past that often have led to simplifications necessary to save time and effort. The result is better decision quality in resource development decisions.