Assessment of Proxy-Hedging in Jet-Fuel Markets

Abstract

The aim of this research is to explore the risk associated with hedging in jet fuel markets. It focuses on finding the most effective proxy hedge instrument for the Singapore spot market. Due to its particularities, this market does not exhibit the same features as traditional financial markets do. In appearance, it seems very related to the oil market, but in reality it exhibits insufficient liquidity and shows unusual volatility clustering effects. This behavior has a direct impact on the hedging strategies of refineries, airline companies and jet fuel traders. The paper explores the econometric features of the jet fuel price and underlines the need of fat tail distributions and volatility clustering models. Also, it examines the density forecasting capacity of various proxy hedge instruments including kerosene, crude and gasoil futures. The results show that Singapore Gasoil Futures contract is the best candidate for hedging the Singapore Jet Fuel spot price.