Projection pursuit model for rank evaluating drought based on logistic curve

Baozhu Yu, Q. Fu, Jing Zhao
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Abstract

Existing drought evaluation method which people easy to appear the interference of artificial weights, this paper puts forward projection pursuit model for evaluating drought based on logistic curve and selects the drought evaluation index as projection parameters to seek its best projection direction. Taking Qiqihar area as research objects, the departure ratio of rain-fall, dry index and Z index were selected to establish drought assessment model based on above methods. The results showed that the model could avoid the interference of artificial weights. This method is feasible to evaluate the drought.
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基于logistic曲线的干旱等级评价投影寻踪模型
现有的干旱评价方法容易出现人为权重的干扰,本文提出了基于logistic曲线的干旱评价投影寻踪模型,选取干旱评价指标作为投影参数,寻求其最佳投影方向。以齐齐哈尔地区为研究对象,选取降雨量偏离比、干旱指数和Z指数,建立基于上述方法的干旱评价模型。结果表明,该模型可以避免人工权重的干扰。该方法对旱情评价是可行的。
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