{"title":"The Role of Speculators in the Crude Oil Futures Market","authors":"J. Harris, Bahattin Buyuksahin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1435042","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: The coincident rise in crude oil prices and increased numbers of financial participants in the crude oil futures market from 2000-2008 has led to allegations that \"speculators\" drive crude oil prices. As crude oil futures peaked at $147/bbl in July 2008, the role of speculators came under heated debate. In this paper, we employ unique data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to test the relation between crude oil prices and the trading positions of various types of traders in the crude oil futures market. We employ Granger Causality tests to analyze lead and lag relations between price and position data at daily and multiple day intervals. We find little evidence that hedge funds and other non-commercial (speculator) position changes Granger-cause price changes;–the results instead suggest that price changes do precede their position changes.","PeriodicalId":40006,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Derivatives","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2009-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"66","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Derivatives","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1435042","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 66
Abstract
Abstract: The coincident rise in crude oil prices and increased numbers of financial participants in the crude oil futures market from 2000-2008 has led to allegations that "speculators" drive crude oil prices. As crude oil futures peaked at $147/bbl in July 2008, the role of speculators came under heated debate. In this paper, we employ unique data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to test the relation between crude oil prices and the trading positions of various types of traders in the crude oil futures market. We employ Granger Causality tests to analyze lead and lag relations between price and position data at daily and multiple day intervals. We find little evidence that hedge funds and other non-commercial (speculator) position changes Granger-cause price changes;–the results instead suggest that price changes do precede their position changes.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Derivatives (JOD) is the leading analytical journal on derivatives, providing detailed analyses of theoretical models and how they are used in practice. JOD gives you results-oriented analysis and provides full treatment of mathematical and statistical information on derivatives products and techniques. JOD includes articles about: •The latest valuation and hedging models for derivative instruments and securities •New tools and models for financial risk management •How to apply academic derivatives theory and research to real-world problems •Illustration and rigorous analysis of key innovations in derivative securities and derivative markets
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