Economic insecurity, racial anxiety, and right‐wing populism

Abstract

This paper studies the roles of economic insecurity and attitudes to racial inequality as predictors of voting patterns in the 2016 US election. Using data from the 2016 Voter Survey, we show that both perceptions of economic insecurity, and concerns over anti-white discrimination, are significant correlates of Republican support. Effect sizes on racial attitudes are much larger than those found on economic insecurity, although the effects of insecurity become larger when accounting for both short-term and long-term economic stress. We also show there is very little heterogeneity in the effects of insecurity across racial groups—both Whites and minorities are more likely to vote Republican when experiencing short term insecurity. Our results suggest that policies that mitigate micro-level economic risk may lessen support for populist political candidates