Estimation of the Duration of Covid-19 Epidemic in a Single Country, with or without Vaccinations. The Case of Bulgaria and Germany

IF 0.3 4区综合性期刊 Q4 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Comptes Rendus De L Academie Bulgare Des Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-20 DOI:10.7546/CRABS.2021.05.05

O. Kounchev, G. Simeonov, Z. Kuncheva

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

In the present paper we develop a methodology for the estimation of the duration of the Epidemic of Covid-19 in a single country, with or without vaccinations, accounting for different scenarios. Our methodology is based on a specific SEIR model, called ATVBG-SEIR model, which is explained in detail. The results are especially interesting for vaccination-free society since they show what the Covid-19 mortality would be in different scenarios. We include vaccinations in the model which are carried out according to a vaccination plan provided on a daily basis. The main constraint to be accounted by the methodology is the number of Intensive Care Units (ICU) reserved for Covid-19 patients (they are e.g. about 1100 in Bulgaria, about 8000 in Germany, etc.). A Web-based Lockdown Scenarios Tool has been developed, based on the present methodology, which is available at www.atvbg-seir.eu. Results in the paper are demonstrating the efficiency of the tool by applying it to Covid-19 data from Bulgaria and Germany, while in the tool we provide online models for Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. © 2021 Academic Publishing House. All rights reserved.

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在接种疫苗或未接种疫苗的情况下估算单个国家Covid-19流行持续时间。保加利亚和德国的案例

在本文中，我们开发了一种方法，用于估计在接种或不接种疫苗的情况下单个国家Covid-19流行的持续时间，并考虑了不同的情况。我们的方法是基于一个特定的SEIR模型，称为ATVBG-SEIR模型，这是详细解释。这些结果对于无疫苗接种的社会来说特别有趣，因为它们显示了不同情况下Covid-19的死亡率。我们在模型中包括根据每天提供的疫苗接种计划进行的疫苗接种。该方法要考虑的主要限制因素是为Covid-19患者保留的重症监护病房(ICU)的数量(例如，保加利亚约为1100个，德国约为8000个，等等)。根据目前的方法，开发了一个基于网络的封锁情景工具，可在www.atvbg-seir.eu上获得。通过将该工具应用于保加利亚和德国的Covid-19数据，本文的结果证明了该工具的有效性，而在该工具中，我们提供了奥地利、保加利亚、德国、意大利、英国和美国的在线模型。©2021学术出版社。版权所有。

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来源期刊

Comptes Rendus De L Academie Bulgare Des Sciences 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

33.30%

发文量

181

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： Founded in 1948 by academician Georgy Nadjakov, "Comptes rendus de l’Académie bulgare des Sciences" is also known as "Доклади на БАН","Доклады Болгарской академии наук" and "Proceeding of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences". If applicable, the name of the journal should be abbreviated as follows: C. R. Acad. Bulg. Sci. (according to ISO)