Evolution of National Approaches to Cyber Warfare

Abstract

The latest information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly considered by nation-states as a means to project their power and promote national interests. Over the past 20 years the major militarily signifi cant powers have created the doctrinal, logistical and organizational foundations for conducting military activities in the ICT environment and some states have already openly declared the priority of off ensive cyber operations, which increases the risks of crossing “red lines” and inadvertent escalation. The current situation related to the military-political exploitation of the ICT environment predetermines the urgent need for continuous analysis of current trends in this area and the search for approaches to reduce tension, which is the goal of this article. To achieve this goal, the fi rst part of the article considers in detail relevant doctrinal and strategic documents of the United States and other key countries and identifi es certain stages and aspects of evolution of their approaches. Further, the article considers and evaluates factors that infl uence military stability in the ICT environment, taking into account the previously obtained results. It is concluded that the identifi ed factors make the task of developing international frameworks to reduce the escalation in this area uncontested. This task is of particular urgency in the context of general international instability. Analysis of the current international environment in the relevant sphere allows to conclude that international community as a whole and the major players in particular (primarily Russia and the US) are aware of the danger of unintentional escalation in the ICT environment, especially when linked to strategic stability, and are ready to take steps towards developing the framework aimed at regulation and prevention of cyber confl icts. It is very actual now in new political reality but the question mostly is about fi nding the possible format.