Impact of Rain Intensity on Interstate Traffic Speeds Using Connected Vehicle Data

Abstract

With the emergence of connected vehicle data and high-resolution weather data, there is an opportunity to develop models with high spatial-temporal fidelity to characterize the impact of weather on interstate traffic speeds. In this study, 275,422 trip records from 41,234 unique journeys on 42 rainy days in 2021 and 2022 were obtained. These trip records are categorized as no rain, slight rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain periods using the precipitation rate from NOAA High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) data. It was observed that average speeds decreased by approximately 8.4% during conditions classified as very heavy rain compared to no rain. Similarly, the interquartile range of traffic speeds increased from 8.34 mph to 12.24 mph as the rain intensity increased. This study also developed a disaggregate approach using logit models to characterize the relationship between weather-related variables (precipitation rate, visibility, temperature, wind, and day or night) and interstate speed reductions. Estimation results reveal that the odds ratio of reducing speed is 5.8% higher for drivers if the precipitation rate is increased by 1 mm/h. The headwind was found to have a positive significant impact of only up to a 10% speed reduction, and speed reduction is greater during nighttime conditions compared to daytime conditions by a factor of 1.68. The additional explanatory variables shed light on drivers’ speed selection in adverse weather environments, providing more information than the single precipitation intensity measure. Results from this study will be particularly helpful for agencies and automobile manufacturers to provide advance warnings to drivers and establish thresholds for autonomous vehicle control.