Business Cycle Synchronization and Multilateral Trade Integration in the BRICS

Abstract

Abstract Two decades have passed since the acronym BRIC was coined in 2001. The cooperation within the BRIC was formalized in 2009, and the BRIC expanded into BRICS after South Africa joined in 2010. To deepen economic cooperation within the BRICS, the progress of regional economic integration will affect the degree of business cycle synchronization within the region, which in turn will have an impact on the direction and magnitude of macroeconomic interdependence and growth spillovers among the regional partners. In this paper, we find inconclusive evidence of cross-country business cycle synchronization and trade integration in the BRICS. To investigate their potential for further multilateral trade integration, we combine data on international trade linkages with network methods to examine the multilateral trade system in the BRICS as an interdependent complex network. We map the topology of the BRICS multilateral trade network, and assess the extent of their multilateral trade integration. The policy implication is that to promote BRICS regional economic integration, there are two possible paths forward: the formation of regional trade agreement (RTA), and the adoption of central bank digital currency (CBDC).