Impak Harga Minyak Sawit terhadap Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of palm oil prices on the growth of the agricultural sector. Using Malaysian quarterly data starting from Q1: 1992 to Q3: 2019, this study uses an autoregressive distributed lat approach. This findings show that palm oil price has a positive impact on the growth of the agricultural sector either in the long or short run. The study further found that there is a long run and short run relationship between agricultural sector output with palm oil price, consumer price index and real effective exchange rate. In the long run, palm oil prices and real effective exchange rate are positively and significantly related to agricultural sector output. However, the consumer price index is negatively and significantly correlated with the output of the agricultural sector. In the short run, all independent variables show a positive relationship with the dependent variable that is the output of the agricultural sector. The empirical findings of this study provide insights to policy makers on the positive impact of changes in palm oil prices on economic activity to ensure that all stakeholders in this sector benefit accordingly.