Evaluation of Estimation Accuracy of River Model AIST-SHANEL– For Bisphenol A in the Tama River –

Abstract

The accuracy of the AIST-SHANEL model for estimating chemical concentrations in river water and sediment was evaluated for bisphenol A in the Tama River from 2017 to 2019 to promote the risk assessment of chemicals in river basins. The estimated river water and sediment concentrations of bisphenol A using the PRTR data were more than one order of magnitude lower than the measured values for both. After confirming the validity of the flow rate, the estimated chemical concentrations in river water and sediment were recalculated by adding the emissions of bisphenol A other than the PRTR data. As a result, the estimated river water concentrations were almost the same as the measured values. Although the concentration in river sediment tended to be underestimated, at about 1/3 of the measurement sites, the estimated concentrations were of the same level as the measured values. To enable further use of the AIST-SHANEL model, it is necessary to accumulate the accuracy evaluation data for more rivers and chemical substances and to examine the validity of the model.