Risk Assessment of Renewable Energy Generation Systems Projects

V. Tremyasov, Yana E. Zograf, T. Krivenko
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Abstract

The operation of renewable energy generation systems is associated with various risks. Risk analysis is part of a systematic approach to making technical decisions to prevent or reduce the risk of industrial accidents, damage to property and the environment. When evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects with renewable energy sources, risk assessment is carried out with uncertainty of information about the conditions of project implementation, including associated costs and economic losses. This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment method using cause – consequence diagrams, which are combined event trees and fault trees, on the example of the wind power installation NordWind (Germany)
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可再生能源发电系统项目风险评估
可再生能源发电系统的运行伴随着各种风险。风险分析是制定技术决策的系统方法的一部分,以防止或减少工业事故、财产和环境损害的风险。在评估可再生能源投资项目的有效性时,风险评估是在项目实施条件信息不确定的情况下进行的,包括相关成本和经济损失。本文以德国NordWind风电装置为例,提出了一种基于事件树和故障树相结合的因果图的定量风险评估方法。
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