Modelling the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 with treatment as a control strategy: the case of India

Abstract

This paper models the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its treatment based on the cases in India, by extending the classic SIR model to include exposed, asymptomatic, and treatment classes with a special focus to investigate the effect of ineffective treatment on the transmissibility of the infection with variation in the treatment initiation. The basic reproduction number was computed to understand the relative effect of early treatment initiation from the delayed treatment initiation on the transmissibility of the infection. With the estimated parameters obtained by faithfully fitting the simulation to the observed data, a global sensitivity analysis carried out indicated the treatment initiation to be one of the most influential parameters to infection control. With this concept, a further analysis revealed that an early treatment initiation can be a helpful control strategy on the transmissibility of the infection. However, for it to happen, an intervention such as proactively doing case finding is deemed important. Copyright © 2022 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.