Dört Farklı Metasezgisel Algoritma Kullanılarak Rüzgâr Hızı Olasılık Dağılımı Parametrelerinin Tahmini

Abstract

The inclusion of energy produced from renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar and wind energy into existing energy systems is important to reduce carbon emissions, air pollution and climate change, and to ensure sustainable development. However, the integration of RES into the energy system is quite difficult due to their highly uncertain and intermittent nature. In this study, considering three different probability density functions in total, the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull probability density function (PDF), the scale parameter of the Rayleigh PDF, and the scale and shape parameters of the Gamma PDF were estimated for the wind speed data obtained from urban stations located in Istanbul by using the four different metaheuristic algorithms, namely Genetic Algorithm (GA), Differential Evolution (DE), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithms. Calculating the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and R2 values for each PDF at each station, the PDF that characterizes the wind speed probability distribution the best was identified.