Cyclicality of bank capital buffers in South-Eastern Europe: endogenous and exogenous aspects

Abstract

The interdependence between the regulatory capital ratio and macroeconomic indicators, with reference to the phenomena cyclicality and pro-cyclicality is a widely emphasized disadvantage of the capital adequacy concept. Redesign of the aforementioned concept towards the countercyclical capital requirements is a kind of recognition of the creators of the Basel standards of the previous oversights in its development. This paper aims to explore empirically the direction, intensity and significance of endogenous and exogenous determinants of the changes in banks’ capital buffers by taking into consideration both the impact of the macroeconomic properties and the bank-specific characteristics of South-Eastern Europe. More than 80 commercial banks in the period from 2000-2010 have been encompassed by the research. Use of a dynamic panel analysis led to the conclusion that the bank capital buffers decreased during the observed period, with the exception of certain years during the economic expansion, which confirms the appropriateness of regulatory requirements considering the countercyclical capital buffers. Nevertheless, it might be that capital building and spending in the future will not follow the pattern from the last decade due to the specificities of the observed period, as well as the banking sector ownership transformations, economic and credit growth as well as asset prices growth in the post-transitional period, and finally, the real crisis which spilled over onto the financial sectors.